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Social Contacts and Mixing Patterns Relevant to the Spread of Infectious Diseases

机译:与传染病传播有关的社会交往和混合方式

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摘要

Background: Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route (e.g., pandemic influenza) is increasingly being used to determine the impact of possible interventions. Although mixing patterns are known to be crucial determinants for model outcome, researchers often rely on a priori contact assumptions with little or no empirical basis. We conducted a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries using a common paper-diary methodology. Methods and Findings: 7,290 participants recorded characteristics of 97,904 contacts with different individuals during one day, including age, sex, location, duration, frequency, and occurrence of physical contact. We found that mixing patterns and contact characteristics were remarkably similar across different European countries. Contact patterns were highly assortative with age: schoolchildren and young adults in particular tended to mix with people of the same age. Contacts lasting at least one hour or occurring on a daily basis mostly involved physical contact, while short duration and infrequent contacts tended to be nonphysical. Contacts at home, school, or leisure were more likely to be physical than contacts at the workplace or while travelling. Preliminary modelling indicates that 5- to 19-year-olds are expected to suffer the highest incidence during the initial epidemic phase of an emerging infection transmitted through social contacts measured here when the population is completely susceptible. Conclusions: To our knowledge, our study provides the first large-scale quantitative approach to contact patterns relevant for infections transmitted by the respiratory or close-contact route, and the results should lead to improved parameterisation of mathematical models used to design control strategies.
机译:背景:通过呼吸或近距离接触途径传播的传染病(例如大流行性流感)的数学模型越来越多地用于确定可能的干预措施的影响。尽管已知混合模式是模型结果的关键决定因素,但研究人员通常依靠先验接触假设,而没有或没有经验基础。我们使用常见的纸质日记方法对八个欧洲国家的混合模式进行了基于人群的前瞻性调查。方法和发现:7,290名参与者记录了一天中与不同个人的97,904次接触的特征,包括年龄,性别,位置,持续时间,频率和身体接触的发生。我们发现,在不同的欧洲国家中,混合模式和接触特性非常相似。接触方式随年龄而异:尤其是小学生和年轻人倾向于与同龄人混合。持续至少一小时或每天发生的接触大多涉及身体接触,而持续时间短且不频繁的接触往往是非身体接触。与工作场所或旅行中的联系相比,在家,学校或休闲时的联系更有可能是身体上的联系。初步模型表明,在人群完全易感的情况下,预计通过社交接触传播的新发感染的初始流行阶段,预计5至19岁的人群发病率最高。结论:据我们所知,我们的研究提供了第一种大规模定量方法,用于与通过呼吸道或近距离接触途径传播的感染有关的接触方式,其结果应能改善用于设计控制策略的数学模型的参数化。

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